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	<title>Keene Politics &#187; deficit</title>
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	<description>Analysis and opinion that&#039;s always Right.</description>
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		<title>The New Jersey War</title>
		<link>http://www.keenepolitics.com/posts/new-jersey-war/</link>
		<comments>http://www.keenepolitics.com/posts/new-jersey-war/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 18 Feb 2010 20:17:51 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Wes Keene</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Tax Policy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[chris christie]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[deficit]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[new jersey]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[taxes]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.keenepolitics.com/?p=276</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Governor Chris Christie is turning out even better than most conservatives had hoped. His budget cuts are going to reduce spending overall. He's also adamant about not raising taxes. It all comes at a price from union leaders and other beneficiaries of the establishment...a price well worth paying.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>There is an old adage from fighter pilots that goes something like: &#8220;you know you&#8217;re over your target when you start taking fire&#8221;. If that&#8217;s true, the Governor Christie is exactly where he needs to be. He has correctly identified that you can no longer fix New Jersey&#8217;s budget deficits by simply increasing taxes as his predecessor did. It&#8217;s time to make deep cuts.</p>
<p>NJ.com has published Christie&#8217;s <a title="NJ.com - Christie's Address To State Legislature" href="http://www.nj.com/politics/index.ssf/2010/02/chris_christies_speech_on_budg.html" target="_blank">recent address to the State&#8217;s legislature</a>. In the speech he outlines a large number of budget cuts and freezes. One of the more controversial cuts is a hold on $475 million in State aid to schools. Naturally, this raises the ire of the teacher&#8217;s union. The cuts are decried as dangerous, unnecessary, and terrible for children. The unions already have the left wing media <a title="NJ.com - School Budget Cuts" href="http://www.nj.com/news/index.ssf/2010/02/njs_poorest_school_districts_w.html" target="_blank">turning on the waterworks</a>. Christie isn&#8217;t falling for it.</p>
<p>Another fiscal problem Christie identified will hit home for California politicians:</p>
<blockquote><p>&#8220;One state retiree, 49 years old, paid, over the course of his entire career, a total of $124,000 towards his retirement pension and health benefits. What will we pay him? $3.3 million in pension payments over his life and nearly $500,000 for health care benefits &#8212; a total of $3.8m on a $120,000 investment. Is that fair?&#8221;</p></blockquote>
<p>Not only is it unfair, but it doesn&#8217;t even make fiscal sense. The tax rate required to support pension programs like this would never pass on a referendum, and officials know it. That&#8217;s why these sorts of benefits are &#8220;hidden&#8221;, taxpayers only see the current cost of teachers&#8217; salaries, and it seems reasonable at the time. Years later, when it&#8217;s time to pay for these benefits is when the taxpayers really feel the pain. Now is that time for New Jersey.</p>
<p>Then there are the moral arguments. Why does a government worker get <a title="Manhattan Institute - Two Americas" href="http://www.manhattan-institute.org/html/ib_01.htm" target="_blank">better treatment than everyone else</a>? That sounds like a form of government our Founding Fathers worked hard to get away from, not something we should embrace. A public servant is just that, a servant. We should not be creating government jobs that pay better than their private sector equivalents, provide better benefits, and make it nearly <a title="Wikipedia - Tenure" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tenure" target="_blank">impossible to get fired</a>. But that&#8217;s exactly what nearly all government jobs do.</p>
<p>I&#8217;m liking this guy more and more. I wonder if he&#8217;s busy in 2012.</p>
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		<title>Special Report: America&#8217;s Debt Disaster</title>
		<link>http://www.keenepolitics.com/posts/special-report-americas-debt-disaster/</link>
		<comments>http://www.keenepolitics.com/posts/special-report-americas-debt-disaster/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sun, 07 Feb 2010 01:47:45 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Wes Keene</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Economy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[budget]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[deficit]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[national debt]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.keenepolitics.com/?p=76</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[America has a national debt crisis.  We've reached a tipping point.  Years of imbalanced budgets and zero focus on fiscal discipline have landed the country in a situation where our credit rating could soon be downgraded, or new debt couldn't be sold on the market.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Congress recently did what none of us could do.  They bestowed upon themselves a massive credit line increase, $1.9 trillion to be precise.  That raises our national credit limit to $14.3 trillion, in total.  As of today, our outstanding national debt stands at <a title="National Debt Clock" href="http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock/" target="_blank">$12.3 trillion</a>.  The remaining $2 trillion is allocated, but not yet spent. However, once money is allocated, it will definitely be spent.</p>
<p>As is typical with any financially irresponsible family, excuses are made for needing the credit line to be raised.  Those familiar with families struggling with money management know the story all too well:  The person in charge of the cash goes out and blows the whole paycheck on lottery tickets, dinners out, and a huge TV.  Then when groceries need to be purchased, they will claim they &#8220;must&#8221; use the credit card because groceries are non-negotiable.  Its the oldest trick in the book for the financially foolish.</p>
<p>This exact trick was employed last year when Congress blew threw $827billion for stimulus and about $825 billion between the bank bail out and the auto bailout.  Unsurprisingly, that adds up to just under the new &#8220;credit line increase&#8221;. As expected, we blew money on things we didn&#8217;t need and won&#8217;t work, before we spent money on things we *do* need like paying our bills and protecting our land.</p>
<p>If every man, woman and child in the country paid an even share of the $14.3 trillion debt, we&#8217;d all pay $40,141.11 Considering that not everyone in the country is able to work, that number gets much worse.</p>
<p>Stated a different way; there are roughly 138.5 million <a title="Heritage Foundation - Workforce Report" href="http://www.heritage.org/research/labor/wm406.cfm" target="_blank">people in the US work force</a>.  If you have a calculator that handles trillions, you can figure out how much we&#8217;ll have to pay to get out of this.  It works out to a little over $89,000 per worker.  $89,000!  Think about that.</p>
<p>The <a title="Household Income - Wikipedia" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Household_income_in_the_United_States" target="_blank">median American salary</a> as of 2007 stood at $50,233. That means if every US worker used every paycheck for the next 1.77 years and didn&#8217;t keep one dime for themselves, we&#8217;d be able paid off our back debt.  Well, even that isn&#8217;t totally true, because the budget for FY2011 is $3.68 trillion.  So over the 1.77 years you were busy paying our back debt, you would have racked up $3.68 trillion in more debt to pay.  It&#8217;s a cycle that never ends, and sounds a lot like the situation a family is in right before they are forced to declare bankruptcy.</p>
<p>The news gets worse.  While Obama has paid lip service to the idea of *deficit* reduction, via a 3 year freeze on certain discretionary non-defense spending, he hasn&#8217;t even announced a plan for reducing the debt.  Keep in mind that even if we balanced the budget (a la Newt&#8217;s Contract with America), we still wouldn&#8217;t have done anything about the debt.</p>
<p>The way it out is horribly painful for almost everyone, and politically improbable.  It will require massive social security and medicare cuts, and keeping tax rates right where they are.  Trying to fix our national debt by <a title="Obama's Budget Freeze A Symbolic Gesture" href="http://americanpowerblog.blogspot.com/2010/01/obamas-budget-freeze-symbolism.html" target="_blank">freezing 17% of the budget</a> is really ignoring the elephant in the room.</p>
<p>This is really not an optional process.  We have only two legitimate choices: 1) The spending reforms outlined above, or 2) Wide scale monetizing of the debt, which will lead to abrupt, massive inflation.  The scale of the problem dictates the scale of the solution.  We can&#8217;t fix a debt problem equal to over 7 years of government revenues by tweaking a little here and there.</p>
<div class="wp-caption alignnone" style="width: 345px"><img src="http://zfacts.com/metaPage/lib/National-Debt-GDP.gif" alt="" width="335" height="205" /><p class="wp-caption-text">US debt has risen over the last 30 years</p></div>
<p>As a percentage of GDP (the total economic output of the country, of which Uncle Sam gets only a portion), the debt has taken a startling turn in the last year.  The other obvious bump in the graphs happens during World War II.  However, World War II was followed by a massive economic boom.  There is no such boom on the horizon now, not even in Obama&#8217;s analysis, which <a title="WSJ - Obama's Economic Outlook" href="http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2009/02/26/obama-budget-relies-on-rosy-economic-forecasts/tab/article/" target="_blank">expects a modest 4% growth</a> over the next several years.</p>
<p>If giving banks a bail out is &#8220;like a root canal&#8221;, I wonder what colorful terms our President would use to describe the changes we need to reduce our debt.  The good news for him, and the bad news for us and our children, is that he&#8217;d never do it.</p>
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		<title>Crack Is Whack</title>
		<link>http://www.keenepolitics.com/posts/crack-is-whack/</link>
		<comments>http://www.keenepolitics.com/posts/crack-is-whack/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 02 Feb 2010 00:13:32 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Wes Keene</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Economy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[deficit]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[government excess]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[national debt]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[spending]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blogs.keeneservices.com/?p=15</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Those of us who listen to news in the mid-day were treated to an educational opportunity (a teachable moment?) On how to manage a checkbook. The session made some great points about how debt can really bury you. The only problem with the class was its teacher. Call me cynical, just one of those bitter [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Those of us who listen to news in the mid-day were treated to an educational opportunity (a teachable moment?) On how to manage a checkbook.  The session made some great points about how debt can really bury you.</p>
<p>The only problem with the class was its teacher.  Call me cynical, just one of those bitter people that go to church, if you will, but I just don&#8217;t buy it.</p>
<p>Since national security always seems to strike up emotions, let&#8217;s use that as an example.  We could try the 911 thugs for maybe a million bucks in Gitmo.  As John Stossel points out, that kind of number is just a rounding error in Washington.  Instead, our team of national security gurus has been shopping the KSM show to various cities around the country at a cost of maybe 200 million, if you trust Mayor Bloomberg and his police Chief&#8217;s estimate.</p>
<p>Doing that sort of expensive thing doesn&#8217;t give Americans much faith in your ability to pinch pennies when times are tough.</p>
<p>Spending money is like crack to a Washington politi-thug.  However much money got them high yesterday won&#8217;t be anout today.  Let&#8217;s go to the highlight reel:</p>
<p>- The bank bailout (no it wasn&#8217;t needed, don&#8217;t even try that), $700 billion big ones.<br />
- The AIG bailout, up to $180 billion now.<br />
- The union auto bailout, that cost $75-$125 billion.<br />
- The union cash for clunkers program&#8230;wait scratch that, that was a Japanese stimulus plan. That cost $3 billion.<br />
- An $827 billion stimulus plan (don&#8217;t forget, it works!)<br />
- A plane ride over NYC for a photo-op.  Yeah this one wasn&#8217;t *too* expensive, maybe only half a million, but it&#8217;s the thought that counts.<br />
- Flying lots of congress people to Copenhagen for no good reason (at 2200 bucks per night per person for the hotel), $1.1 million.  Personally, I find that figure a little low.<br />
Now this is a ton of waste, and I haven&#8217;t even listed all of them, just the most expensive or divisive ones.  However, I do have an idea for the KSM trial, and I think its going to be a win-win for everyone:  Let NBC hold the trial, I hear they&#8217;ve got some programming holes these days, maybe around 10pm ET?  As an added advantage, when the terrorists blow up NBC during the trial, no one will notice.  Win-win!</p>
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